How did we go from +2.3 percent to -1.5 percent in less than a month? This kind of collapse in an economy as large as the U.S. is exceedingly rare

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ’s GDPNow model projection for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 ( Q1 2025 ) is now showing a slump to -1.5 percent.

This marks a significant downward revision from the previous estimate of 2.3 percent on February 19, 2025 .

On June 1, 2022 , the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimated the second quarter of 2022 growth at +1.3% .

By July 1 of 2022 , it had dropped to -2.1%, a shift of 3.4 percentage points in 30 days .

A similar thing happened in the third quarter of 2021 , a 3.8 -point drop over two months .

The United States will not enter a recession due to the change of administration, says Lacalle .

Lacalle : Government spending continues to be excessive and the U.S. is running an annualized $2.5 trillion deficit.

Reducing federal spending, deficit, and debt accumulation is essential to recover the health of the economy.

Bloating GDP with public spending and debt is not growing; it is the recipe for disaster.